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Prediction for CME (2024-12-28T06:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-28T06:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36032/-1
CME Note: Very narrow and faint outflow/jet preceded by a super faint wider front. The source might be minor flaring and narrow ejecta from AR 3938 (N19E22) seen in SUVI 304 ~2024-12-28T05:28Z. The CME was likely overcome/swept into the front of one or two following faster halo CMEs, 2024-12-29T06:24Z and
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-01T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/36046/1
Model Inputs:
2024-12-28T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-29.0, Lat.=5.0, Speed=342.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2024-12-28T15:23Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-01-01T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-01-01T00:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241228_152300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 68.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-29T13:55Z

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